Neglected Tropical Diseases Modelling Consortium

The investment allows world-renowned experts in disease modelling at Imperial College London, the University of Warwick and Case Western Reserve University, together with Yale University, to investigate best strategies towards achieving WHO goals for schistosomiasis and towards schistosomiasis elimination. The models developed by these groups will allow analysis of different intervention possibilities to shape future deworming programmes. They will also allow existing deworming programmes to predict what their efforts are likely to achieve. These models will be able to shape programmes and guidance both at the global and country level. This work contributes to the wider Neglected Tropical Disease (NTD) Modelling Consortium, which aims to develop models of transmission for nine of the ten Neglected Tropical Diseases. Working as part of a consortium allows for cross-collaboration and sharing of tools and ideas, as described in the Impact section below. Publications can be read on the Neglected Tropical Disease Modelling Consortium website.

This work is also complementary to the Schistosomiasis Control Initiative’s work on schistosomiasis modelling.

This three year investment is designed to enable the modelling of pathways to elimination of Schistosomiasis. The key impact for this operational research investment will be the improvement of the WHO’s deworming guidelines, as well as programming on the ground. The modelling groups have already published the mechanisms behind their respective models and a model comparison paper is in review. Importantly, the modellers will produce a paper on the policy implications of the models later this year, which will inform country programmes and WHO. 

WHO, country programmes and donors have expressed interest in the outputs of the models. CIFF is supporting further dissemination of results by funding a web tool which will allow for models to be used directly by country programmes. This tool leverages the work already done by other disease groups in the NTD Modelling Consortium and has the potential to revolutionise schistosomiasis programme planning at national and sub-national levels.One of the main challenges for the modellers has been the lack of good quality data that can be fed into the models, both in terms of coverage and impact (prevalence and intensity of disease). We are working with the modelling groups to put together and disseminate recommendations of what data needs to be collected to be able to confidently predict programmatic trajectory toward elimination. 

The data provided by the models will help sustain momentum and focus on the treatment of this neglected tropical disease.